THE MODEL DUEL
Race 7 of 10 · Upcoming

Phoenix Raceway

Freeway Insurance 500· Oct 18, 2026Intermediate · 1 mi· Blend: 60% flat-mile season form (Gateway/Phoenix/NH/Nashville/Richmond/Iowa) / 40% Phoenix history since 2022 (incl. spring 2026)
Live from Supabase

Where the models disagree most

Largest gaps between the two projected running orders — the drivers this race is really testing.

  • Austin Hill B P17 · A P36 · Δ19
  • Chase Briscoe B P18 · A P9 · Δ9
  • Chase Elliott B P19 · A P10 · Δ9
  • Carson Hocevar B P20 · A P29 · Δ9
Projected orderBasic
  1. 1Kyle Larson9.6
  2. 2Denny Hamlin9.6
  3. 3Christopher Bell9.6
  4. 4Ryan Blaney10.9
  5. 5Joey Logano11.9
  6. 6William Byron12.2
  7. 7Tyler Reddick14.8
  8. 8Ty Gibbs15.4
  9. 9Josh Berry17.1
  10. 10Bubba Wallace17.5
  11. 11Alex Bowman17.5
  12. 12Michael McDowell17.8
  13. 13Ryan Preece18.1
  14. 14Austin Dillon18.1
  15. 15Ross Chastain18.2
  16. 16Chris Buescher18.2
  17. 17Austin Hill18.4
  18. 18Chase Briscoe19.1
  19. 19Chase Elliott19.4
  20. 20Carson Hocevar20.0
  21. 21Riley Herbst20.9
  22. 22Todd Gilliland21.0
  23. 23Austin Cindric21.6
  24. 24Erik Jones21.6
  25. 25Daniel Suarez21.7
  26. 26Brad Keselowski21.8
  27. 27Shane Van Gisbergen21.9
  28. 28AJ Allmendinger21.9
  29. 29Ricky Stenhouse Jr.22.3
  30. 30Noah Gragson22.8
  31. 31Zane Smith23.5
  32. 32John Hunter Nemechek23.7
  33. 33Connor Zilisch24.0
  34. 34Cole Custer24.4
  35. 35Corey Heimform only24.8
  36. 36Ty Dillon27.8
  37. 37Cody Ware28.4
Projected orderAdvanced
  1. 1Ryan Blaney9.6
  2. 2Christopher Bell9.6
  3. 3Denny Hamlin10.7
  4. 4Kyle Larson11.7
  5. 5Joey Logano12.4
  6. 6William Byron13.1
  7. 7Ty Gibbs14.4
  8. 8Tyler Reddick14.8
  9. 9Chase Briscoe15.6
  10. 10Chase Elliott16.3
  11. 11Bubba Wallace16.6
  12. 12Josh Berry16.7
  13. 13Austin Dillon17.0
  14. 14Chris Buescher17.1
  15. 15Ryan Preece17.2
  16. 16Ross Chastain17.5
  17. 17Alex Bowman17.7
  18. 18Michael McDowell17.8
  19. 19Shane Van Gisbergen17.8
  20. 20Todd Gilliland18.6
  21. 21Brad Keselowski20.4
  22. 22Austin Cindric21.2
  23. 23Noah Gragson21.3
  24. 24Daniel Suarez21.8
  25. 25Erik Jones21.8
  26. 26AJ Allmendinger22.3
  27. 27Cole Custer22.6
  28. 28Ricky Stenhouse Jr.22.9
  29. 29Carson Hocevar23.1
  30. 30Riley Herbst23.6
  31. 31John Hunter Nemechek23.7
  32. 32Zane Smith24.4
  33. 33Connor Zilisch24.4
  34. 34Ty Dillon25.1
  35. 35Corey Heimform only25.4
  36. 36Austin Hill26.3
  37. 37Cody Ware28.3